Open TheEdge
← All cheat sheets

Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

TheEdge Top Plays

Tonight's strongest posted picks by our model's win probability — every one graded against the box score after the game, in public.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 10 rows · NFL · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 40NFL · 10MLB · 15NBA · 7NHL · 8
PlayerBetModelPicks at this tierL10Play on
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 1 Pass TDs
Model
95% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
50% 5/10
Play on
PrizePicks
Derrick Henry
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 14.5 Rec Yds
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog
Austin Hooper
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Receptions
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Pass TDs
Model
69% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Justice Hill
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 3.5 Rush Attempts
Model
69% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 27.5 Pass Attempts
Model
68% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Model
67% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
60% 6/10
Play on
Dabble · ParlayPlay
Derrick Henry
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Receptions
Model
67% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 174.5 Pass Yds
Model
64% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 1.5 Rush Attempts
Model
64% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog

How we pick these

These are tonight's posted props where our model's win probability is highest. Every pick the model publishes is graded against the official box score after the game — wins, losses, pushes and voids — and the record is public on our Record page, by sport and by tier.

The tier record next to each pick is how picks at that confidence level have actually done, not a promise about this one. A 70% pick still loses three times in ten.

FAQ

What does the model % mean?

It's the model's calibrated chance this side clears the line — corrected against how our past picks at that number actually hit.

Why only posted picks?

A pick you can't find on an app is not a pick. Every row here is posted on at least one app or book tonight.