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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

TheEdge Top Plays

Tonight's strongest posted picks by our model's win probability — every one graded against the box score after the game, in public.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 7 rows · NBA · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 40NFL · 10MLB · 15NBA · 7NHL · 8
PlayerBetModelPicks at this tierL10Play on
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 4.5 Rebounds
Model
74% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 5.5 Assists
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
50% 1/2
Play on
Underdog
Norman Powell
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Assists
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 2/2
Play on
Underdog
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
Model
69% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Nikola Jokic
NBA · DEN vs CHI ·
Bet
Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
Model
66% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Nikola Jokic
NBA · DEN vs CHI ·
Bet
Over 11.5 Points
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Nikola Jokic
NBA · DEN vs CHI ·
Bet
Over 6.5 Rebounds
Model
63% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog

How we pick these

These are tonight's posted props where our model's win probability is highest. Every pick the model publishes is graded against the official box score after the game — wins, losses, pushes and voids — and the record is public on our Record page, by sport and by tier.

The tier record next to each pick is how picks at that confidence level have actually done, not a promise about this one. A 70% pick still loses three times in ten.

FAQ

What does the model % mean?

It's the model's calibrated chance this side clears the line — corrected against how our past picks at that number actually hit.

Why only posted picks?

A pick you can't find on an app is not a pick. Every row here is posted on at least one app or book tonight.