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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

TheEdge Top Plays

Tonight's strongest posted picks by our model's win probability — every one graded against the box score after the game, in public.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 40 rows · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 40NFL · 15MLB · 15NBA · 6NHL · 4
PlayerBetModelPicks at this tierL10Play on
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 1 Pass TDs
Model
95% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
50% 5/10
Play on
PrizePicks
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
89% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 10/10
Play on
Sleeper
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Doubles
Model
85% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 10/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Doubles
Model
82% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 10/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
Mookie Betts
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Doubles
Model
78% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
77% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 4.5 Rebounds
Model
74% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
73% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Sleeper
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Derrick Henry
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 14.5 Rec Yds
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
71% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Max Muncy
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Model
71% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Isaac TeSlaa
NFL · DET @ ARI ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Receptions
Model
71% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
60% 6/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 5.5 Assists
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
50% 1/2
Play on
Underdog
Austin Hooper
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Receptions
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Norman Powell
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Assists
Model
70% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 2/2
Play on
Underdog
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Pass TDs
Model
69% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Justice Hill
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 3.5 Rush Attempts
Model
69% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog
Andy Pages
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Model
69% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks
Josh Giddey
NBA · CHI @ DEN ·
Bet
Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
Model
69% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 27.5 Pass Attempts
Model
68% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Sione Vaki
NFL · DET @ ARI ·
Bet
Under 8.5 Rush Yds
Model
68% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
George Holani
NFL · SEA vs SF ·
Bet
Under 31.5 Rush+Rec Yds
Model
68% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
George Holani
NFL · SEA vs SF ·
Bet
Under 18.5 Rush Yds
Model
68% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Rush Yds
Model
67% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
60% 6/10
Play on
Dabble · ParlayPlay
Derrick Henry
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Receptions
Model
67% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
David Jiricek
NHL · PHI vs CAR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Model
66% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Christian Yelich
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Model
66% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Kaelon Black
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Receptions
Model
66% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
75% 3/4
Play on
Underdog
Nikola Jokic
NBA · DEN vs CHI ·
Bet
Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
Model
66% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Nikola Jokic
NBA · DEN vs CHI ·
Bet
Over 11.5 Points
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
0% 0/2
Play on
Underdog
Vincent Desharnais
NHL · WSH vs SEA ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Emanuel Wilson
NFL · SEA vs SF ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Receptions
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Ryker Evans
NHL · SEA @ WSH ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
Jaccob Slavin
NHL · CAR @ PHI ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
George Holani
NFL · SEA vs SF ·
Bet
Under 5.5 Rush Attempts
Model
65% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay

How we pick these

These are tonight's posted props where our model's win probability is highest. Every pick the model publishes is graded against the official box score after the game — wins, losses, pushes and voids — and the record is public on our Record page, by sport and by tier.

The tier record next to each pick is how picks at that confidence level have actually done, not a promise about this one. A 70% pick still loses three times in ten.

FAQ

What does the model % mean?

It's the model's calibrated chance this side clears the line — corrected against how our past picks at that number actually hit.

Why only posted picks?

A pick you can't find on an app is not a pick. Every row here is posted on at least one app or book tonight.