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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

TheEdge Top Plays

Tonight's strongest posted picks by our model's win probability — every one graded against the box score after the game, in public.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 15 rows · MLB · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 40NFL · 10MLB · 15NBA · 7NHL · 8
PlayerBetModelPicks at this tierL10Play on
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
89% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 10/10
Play on
Sleeper
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Doubles
Model
85% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
100% 10/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
Mookie Betts
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Doubles
Model
78% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
76% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
74% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Model
74% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Dabble
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Sleeper
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
72% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Andrew Vaughn
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks
Model
71% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
90% 9/10
Play on
Underdog · ParlayPlay
Max Muncy
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Model
71% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Andy Pages
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Model
67% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks
Freddie Freeman
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Model
65% ELITE
Tier record
65.9% on 6,926
L10
80% 8/10
Play on
PrizePicks
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Model
62% GOOD
Tier record
58% on 54,779
L10
70% 7/10
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay

How we pick these

These are tonight's posted props where our model's win probability is highest. Every pick the model publishes is graded against the official box score after the game — wins, losses, pushes and voids — and the record is public on our Record page, by sport and by tier.

The tier record next to each pick is how picks at that confidence level have actually done, not a promise about this one. A 70% pick still loses three times in ten.

FAQ

What does the model % mean?

It's the model's calibrated chance this side clears the line — corrected against how our past picks at that number actually hit.

Why only posted picks?

A pick you can't find on an app is not a pick. Every row here is posted on at least one app or book tonight.