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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Prop Streaks

Players clearing — or dying under — their current posted line at extreme rates. Ranked by recent hit rate, with the active run and our model's read beside it.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 8 rows · NHL · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 36MLB · 23NFL · 5NHL · 8
PlayerBetLast 10RunL10L20ModelPrice
Jamie Drysdale
NHL · PHI vs CAR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
8
L10
90%
L20
75%
Model
63%
Price
+100 Pick6
Noah Cates
NHL · PHI vs CAR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
8
L10
80%
L20
75%
Model
63%
Price
+100 Pick6
David Jiricek
NHL · PHI vs CAR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
0
L10
90%
L20
95%
Model
66%
Price
+100 Pick6
Elias N. Pettersson
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
3
L10
80%
L20
85%
Model
64%
Price
+112 Dabble
Taylor Hall
NHL · CAR @ PHI ·
Bet
Over 1.5 Shots on Goal CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
80%
L20
80%
Model
62%
Price
+100 Pick6
Tyson Foerster
NHL · PHI vs CAR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
2
L10
80%
L20
85%
Model
62%
Price
+100 Pick6
Jackson Blake
NHL · CAR @ PHI ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Points HEATER
Last 10
Run
5
L10
80%
L20
65%
Model
59%
Price
+100 Pick6
K'Andre Miller
NHL · CAR @ PHI ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Shots on Goal
Last 10
Run
0
L10
80%
L20
65%
Model
60%
Price
+100 Pick6

How to use prop streaks

The simplest prop angle there is: players who keep clearing (or keep missing) the number they are posted at tonight. When a receiver has cleared his line in nine of his last ten, either the market is slow to reprice his role, or the run is luck about to cool off — telling those apart is the whole game.

That's why the model column is there. Our model already knows the streak and adjusts for runs that outpace a player's season — when it still agrees with the streak, the streak has support.

FAQ

What do HEATER and COLD FADE mean?

HEATER = 5+ straight games over the line. COLD FADE = 5+ straight under. CONSISTENT = 75%+ over the last 20.

Do streaks predict the next game?

On their own, not much — recent form alone tested as noise on our graded picks. Streaks are a screener: confirm the role, the matchup and the price.