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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Prop Streaks

Players clearing — or dying under — their current posted line at extreme rates. Ranked by recent hit rate, with the active run and our model's read beside it.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 23 rows · MLB · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 36MLB · 23NFL · 5NHL · 8
PlayerBetLast 10RunL10L20ModelPrice
Teoscar Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
13
L10
100%
L20
75%
Model
70%
Price
-386 Courtside
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
90%
L20
95%
Model
69%
Price
-250 Dabble
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
90%
L20
85%
Model
67%
Price
-245 Kalshi
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
90%
L20
85%
Model
63%
Price
—
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
5
L10
90%
L20
85%
Model
76%
Price
-370 Dabble
Max Muncy
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
90%
L20
90%
Model
67%
Price
-225 Fanatics
Will Smith
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
6
L10
90%
L20
70%
Model
67%
Price
-194 Courtside
Enrique Hernández
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
5
L10
90%
L20
75%
Model
72%
Price
-200 theScore Bet
Andrew Vaughn
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
90%
L20
80%
Model
71%
Price
-296 Courtside
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
80%
L20
80%
Model
73%
Price
-335 Polymarket
Andrew Vaughn
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
5
L10
90%
L20
70%
Model
72%
Price
-323 Dabble
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
3
L10
90%
L20
75%
Model
74%
Price
-345 Dabble
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
6
L10
80%
L20
70%
Model
78%
Price
Dabble 0.5
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Hits HEATER
Last 10
Run
6
L10
80%
L20
70%
Model
56%
Price
+106 Novig
Max Muncy
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
80%
L20
80%
Model
71%
Price
-261 Courtside
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
80%
L20
75%
Model
73%
Price
PrizePicks 0.5
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
0
L10
90%
L20
75%
Model
71%
Price
-317 Kalshi
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Last 10
Run
3
L10
80%
L20
70%
Model
72%
Price
-300 Kalshi
Freddie Freeman
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Batter Walks CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
1
L10
80%
L20
80%
Model
65%
Price
-225 Fanatics
Jake Bauers
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Last 10
Run
3
L10
80%
L20
65%
Model
67%
Price
-257 Kalshi
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
0
L10
80%
L20
80%
Model
77%
Price
Dabble 0.5
Jacob Misiorowski
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Last 10
Run
4
L10
80%
L20
50%
Model
53%
Price
+100 Pick6
Freddie Freeman
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Last 10
Run
0
L10
80%
L20
70%
Model
65%
Price
PrizePicks

How to use prop streaks

The simplest prop angle there is: players who keep clearing (or keep missing) the number they are posted at tonight. When a receiver has cleared his line in nine of his last ten, either the market is slow to reprice his role, or the run is luck about to cool off — telling those apart is the whole game.

That's why the model column is there. Our model already knows the streak and adjusts for runs that outpace a player's season — when it still agrees with the streak, the streak has support.

FAQ

What do HEATER and COLD FADE mean?

HEATER = 5+ straight games over the line. COLD FADE = 5+ straight under. CONSISTENT = 75%+ over the last 20.

Do streaks predict the next game?

On their own, not much — recent form alone tested as noise on our graded picks. Streaks are a screener: confirm the role, the matchup and the price.