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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Prop Streaks

Players clearing — or dying under — their current posted line at extreme rates. Ranked by recent hit rate, with the active run and our model's read beside it.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 5 rows · NFL · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 36MLB · 23NFL · 5NHL · 8
PlayerBetLast 10RunL10L20ModelPrice
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 27.5 Pass Attempts COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
90%
L20
83%
Model
68%
Price
-111 Novig
Brian Robinson Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Under 14.5 Rec Yds CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
2
L10
90%
L20
95%
Model
97%
Price
—
Olamide Zaccheaus
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Under 11.5 Rec Yds COLD FADE
Last 10
Run
7
L10
90%
L20
65%
Model
62%
Price
—
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Pass TDs CONSISTENT
Last 10
Run
4
L10
80%
L20
82%
Model
69%
Price
-127 Polymarket
Derrick Henry
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Receptions
Last 10
Run
0
L10
80%
L20
70%
Model
67%
Price
-182 Novig

How to use prop streaks

The simplest prop angle there is: players who keep clearing (or keep missing) the number they are posted at tonight. When a receiver has cleared his line in nine of his last ten, either the market is slow to reprice his role, or the run is luck about to cool off — telling those apart is the whole game.

That's why the model column is there. Our model already knows the streak and adjusts for runs that outpace a player's season — when it still agrees with the streak, the streak has support.

FAQ

What do HEATER and COLD FADE mean?

HEATER = 5+ straight games over the line. COLD FADE = 5+ straight under. CONSISTENT = 75%+ over the last 20.

Do streaks predict the next game?

On their own, not much — recent form alone tested as noise on our graded picks. Streaks are a screener: confirm the role, the matchup and the price.