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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Soft Spots

Defenses that give up (or shut down) this exact stat, measured against each player's own usual — on the side of the bet it helps.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 5 rows · SOCCER · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 45NFL · 4SOCCER · 5NHL · 9MLB · 27
PlayerBetDefenseVs his usualModelPlay on
Erik Thommy
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Shots on Target
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 24
Vs usual
-0.3 vs STL · 11 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Marco Reus
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Shots on Target
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 24
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 11 games
Model
57%
Play on
—
Erik Thommy
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Pablo Ruiz
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Marco Reus
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
54%
Play on
—

How soft spots are measured

Most defense-vs-position tables compare raw totals, which mostly measures who faced stars. We measure how far players run from THEIR OWN usual against each defense, in the player's units, over about three weeks of games — and only list it on the side of the bet it helps.

This matchup read is one of the corrections inside our win probability, tested on held-out games before it was allowed to move a number.

FAQ

What does "Vs his usual" mean?

Roughly how far above (or below) his own recent average players have run against this defense on this stat.

Why does a tough defense show up?

For an Under, a defense that shuts the stat down helps the bet — so it belongs on the list.