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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Soft Spots

Defenses that give up (or shut down) this exact stat, measured against each player's own usual — on the side of the bet it helps.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 27 rows · MLB · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 45NFL · 4SOCCER · 5NHL · 9MLB · 27
PlayerBetDefenseVs his usualModelPlay on
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
78%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
77%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.6 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
74%
Play on
—
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
73%
Play on
PrizePicks 0.5
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.5 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
70%
Play on
—
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
65%
Play on
—
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.3 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
59%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Jake Bauers
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
60%
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
59%
Play on
Sleeper
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
59%
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
57%
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
76%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble
Andrew Vaughn
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
56%
Play on
ParlayPlay
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
74%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
73%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
73%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Andrew Vaughn
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
72%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
70%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
71%
Play on
—
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
68%
Play on
—
Jake Bauers
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
67%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Andy Pages
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs MIL · 183 games
Model
70%
Play on
—
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.3 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
58%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs MIL · 183 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs MIL · 185 games
Model
72%
Play on
—
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs MIL · 185 games
Model
67%
Play on
—
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
+0.1 vs LAD · 126 games
Model
61%
Play on
PrizePicks

How soft spots are measured

Most defense-vs-position tables compare raw totals, which mostly measures who faced stars. We measure how far players run from THEIR OWN usual against each defense, in the player's units, over about three weeks of games — and only list it on the side of the bet it helps.

This matchup read is one of the corrections inside our win probability, tested on held-out games before it was allowed to move a number.

FAQ

What does "Vs his usual" mean?

Roughly how far above (or below) his own recent average players have run against this defense on this stat.

Why does a tough defense show up?

For an Under, a defense that shuts the stat down helps the bet — so it belongs on the list.