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Free cheat sheet · Sunday, October 11

Soft Spots

Defenses that give up (or shut down) this exact stat, measured against each player's own usual — on the side of the bet it helps.

✓ Every pick graded in public · 62.1% on 54,695 picks
Updated · 50 rows · tap any row to open it in TheEdge
All · 50NFL · 11SOCCER · 5NHL · 9MLB · 25
PlayerBetDefenseVs his usualModelPlay on
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 17.5 Completions
Defense
Soft D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
+2 vs BAL · 18 games
Model
61%
Play on
Dabble 18.5
Jacoby Brissett
NFL · ARI vs DET ·
Bet
Over 231.5 Pass Yds
Defense
Soft D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
+27.1 vs DET · 20 games
Model
62%
Play on
—
Kaelon Black
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 31.5 Rush+Rec Yds
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
—
Model
68%
Play on
—
Christian McCaffrey
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 107.5 Rush+Rec Yds
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-12.5 vs SEA · 99 games
Model
58%
Play on
—
Deebo Samuel Sr.
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 53.5 Rush+Rec Yds
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-8.6 vs SEA · 99 games
Model
56%
Play on
—
Erik Thommy
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Shots on Target
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 24
Vs usual
-0.3 vs STL · 11 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Marco Reus
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Shots on Target
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 24
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 11 games
Model
57%
Play on
—
Adam Fox
NHL · NYR vs VAN ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Points
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 32
Vs usual
+0.3 vs VAN · 154 games
Model
63%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Mika Zibanejad
NHL · NYR vs VAN ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Points
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 32
Vs usual
+0.3 vs VAN · 154 games
Model
63%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
J.T. Miller
NHL · NYR vs VAN ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Points
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 32
Vs usual
+0.2 vs VAN · 154 games
Model
62%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Alexis Lafreniere
NHL · NYR vs VAN ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Points
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 32
Vs usual
+0.3 vs VAN · 154 games
Model
57%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · ATL vs BAL ·
Bet
Over 220.5 Pass Yds
Defense
Soft D · 3rd of 32
Vs usual
+15.4 vs BAL · 19 games
Model
55%
Play on
—
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
78%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
77%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.6 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
74%
Play on
—
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
73%
Play on
PrizePicks 0.5
William Contreras
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.5 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
70%
Play on
—
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
65%
Play on
—
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.3 vs LAD · 181 games
Model
58%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Elias N. Pettersson
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-0.1 vs NYR · 200 games
Model
64%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble
Zeev Buium
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-0.1 vs NYR · 200 games
Model
64%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-0.1 vs NYR · 200 games
Model
64%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble
Linus Karlsson
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-0.2 vs NYR · 200 games
Model
61%
Play on
ParlayPlay
Marco Rossi
NHL · VAN @ NYR ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Points
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 32
Vs usual
-0.2 vs NYR · 200 games
Model
57%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Brock Purdy
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Pass TDs
Defense
Tough D · 4th of 32
Vs usual
-0.3 vs SEA · 22 games
Model
72%
Play on
—
Jake Bauers
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
59%
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
59%
Play on
Sleeper
Joey Ortiz
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
77%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 Singles
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
56%
Play on
Sleeper · ParlayPlay
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
74%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Luis Lara
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
74%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Cooper Pratt
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
73%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Christian Yelich
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
72%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 0.5 RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 168 games
Model
70%
Play on
Underdog · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Jacoby Brissett
NFL · ARI vs DET ·
Bet
Over 1.5 Pass TDs
Defense
Soft D · 3rd of 32
Vs usual
+0.1 vs DET · 20 games
Model
61%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Garrett Mitchell
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
70%
Play on
—
Brice Turang
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
68%
Play on
—
Jake Bauers
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
67%
Play on
Dabble 0.5
Andy Pages
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs MIL · 183 games
Model
70%
Play on
—
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 1st of 30
Vs usual
-0.3 vs LAD · 189 games
Model
57%
Play on
Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Brock Purdy
NFL · SF @ SEA ·
Bet
Under 240.5 Pass Yds
Defense
Tough D · 5th of 32
Vs usual
-11.9 vs SEA · 22 games
Model
54%
Play on
—
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 30
Vs usual
-0.2 vs MIL · 183 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Kyle Tucker
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
-0.4 vs MIL · 185 games
Model
72%
Play on
—
Justice Hill
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 3.5 Rush Attempts
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 32
Vs usual
-0.3 vs ATL · 46 games
Model
69%
Play on
Underdog
Shohei Ohtani
MLB · LAD @ MIL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Bases
Defense
Tough D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
-0.1 vs MIL · 185 games
Model
67%
Play on
—
Tyler Huntley
NFL · BAL @ ATL ·
Bet
Under 5.5 Rush Attempts
Defense
Tough D · 3rd of 32
Vs usual
-0.4 vs ATL · 46 games
Model
61%
Play on
PrizePicks · Underdog · Sleeper · Dabble · ParlayPlay
Jackson Chourio
MLB · MIL vs LAD ·
Bet
Over 0.5 Batter Strikeouts
Defense
Soft D · 2nd of 30
Vs usual
+0.1 vs LAD · 126 games
Model
61%
Play on
PrizePicks
Erik Thommy
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Pablo Ruiz
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
63%
Play on
—
Marco Reus
SOCCER · LA @ STL ·
Bet
Under 1.5 Total Shots
Defense
Tough D · 9th of 42
Vs usual
-0.2 vs STL · 27 games
Model
54%
Play on
—

How soft spots are measured

Most defense-vs-position tables compare raw totals, which mostly measures who faced stars. We measure how far players run from THEIR OWN usual against each defense, in the player's units, over about three weeks of games — and only list it on the side of the bet it helps.

This matchup read is one of the corrections inside our win probability, tested on held-out games before it was allowed to move a number.

FAQ

What does "Vs his usual" mean?

Roughly how far above (or below) his own recent average players have run against this defense on this stat.

Why does a tough defense show up?

For an Under, a defense that shuts the stat down helps the bet — so it belongs on the list.